This is the time of year where the real stories start to unfold and we find out who's for real and who the pretenders are. This is also the time of year when commentators, analysts, writers, and bloggers, myself included, eat crow. No one is perfect. If we could accurately predict who's going to win the national championship, Superbowl, or World Series, we wouldn't be doing what we're doing. Most people are too pompous and arrogant to admit when they are wrong though. I'd be willing to be that Michael Wilbon still thinks the Big 10 is the best conference despite the fact that Michigan State, the #3 team in the conference is sitting at 8-8 in conference play. But it's a possibility that with Texas apparently self destructing again, the Big 10 could get 2 #1 seeds in the big dance. Ohio State is a given. But Purdue is playing pretty impressive basketball now. They have Illinois at home and at Iowa remaining. If they can win out, including winning the Big 10 tournament it's a good possibility they could be a #1 seed. A few weeks ago, the #1 seeds were pretty clear, but only a few weeks later it seems that no one wants to claim that precious top seed. For the third week in a row, the top ranked team as well as others in the top 10 have fallen. This weekend saw Duke, San Diego State, Texas, Pittsburgh, and Arizona taken down. After the past few weeks, it causes me to reavaluate a few teams.
I will start with Texas. Up until last weekend everyone, myself included was ready to make them the best team in the country. They were ready to take over the top spot in the polls until a visit to Lincoln. Then for the second Saturday in a row, they have blown a big lead, and lost the game. I have not gone back through every teams schedule yet, but I have looked over a few. One of the reasons everyone was ready to annoint Texas #1 was because of their non conference schedule. But, after most of the season has played out, some of those wins don't look quite as impressive. Illinois and Michigan State are not very big wins now. North Carolina was a good win, but their non conference schedule now consists of 3 ranked teams, and Texas is 1-2 against them. It is possible, that Texas could drop completely out of the Top 10. I don't think they will fall that far, but they are not top 8. That would make them a #3 seed. They had it made. As a #1 seed, Tulsa would be the farthest they would have to travel. At this point I don't think Texas could play their way into a #1 seed even if they win the Big 12 tournament.
Kansas is a touchy one. I have been given them a little respect. I believe they deserve to be where they are. I believe if you look back in my blogs I did say that it's a very good possibility that Kansas will be ranked #1 again before the end of the season. And now it appears that they will be given a second chance to defend that #1 ranking. They will probably be in the top spot in at least one of the polls. But their stay might be as short as the first time with Texas A&M coming to town, and traveling to Missouri, it will be a tough road. If I remember correctly, the last team to beat Kansas at the Phog before Texas this season was Texas A&M several years ago. While both teams are probably in, one loss could put them on the bubble. Another point I'd like to make is that I have never ruled Kansas out of winning the Big 12 regular season title. I didn't give them good odds, but I said it was definately a possibility, and here they are, tied with Texas with one week left in the regular season. Now for the hard part. My biggest criticism of Kansas has been their schedule. Now that the season is winding down it appears their schedule is a little tougher than I game them credit for. While Memphis doesn't appear to be as good of a win now, there are a few that look a little more impressive now. While Arizona is probably going to tumble due to back to back losses in LA this week, they are still a very impressive team on their way to a Pac 10 title. The very next game was UCLA and as of now, are tied with Arizona for the lead in the Pac 10 and put on a pretty impressive show yesterday in the last game at Pauley Pavillion. Another game that sticks out is Michigan. Michigan has come around and most analysts have Michigan in the tournament field. Arizona, UCLA, and Michigan are more impressive wins than Illinois and Michigan State. Those two teams are playing awful basketball right now, and appear like they are trying their hardest NOT to make the tournament. They will get in because they are in the prescious Big 10. A few more wins that I'm not quite ready to call impressive wins, but give them an advantage over other conference foes, i.e. Texas, Missouri, and Kansas State. Only two teams have won AT Lincoln this season, Kansas is one, Kansas State is the other. We will see what happens at Missouri later this week. Missouri has struggled on the road, but is undefeated in conference play at home. Kansas State split with them, and Texas played them in Austin. Then their's Colorado. Something tells me the Pac 10 is getting a good basketball team on the rise. They have some pretty big wins. They swept Kansas State, split with Missouri, and this weekend beat Texas. Well, Kansas swept them. In most seasons that would mean nothing, but Colorado is a very good and improved team this year. So, as it appears now, Kansas has proven they are the best team in the Big XII. Can they put an exclamation point on that, or will they stumble again. Missouri probably has the toughest schedule remaining, at lincoln and Kansas at home. They can not afford to loose both games. They will finish at 8-8 in conference play and might find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.
I still refuse to give Duke the respect they are getting. Kansas State and Michigan State are not good wins. Both of them are bubble teams who didn't live up to expectations. I don't think they are worthy of a 1 seed.
Pittsburgh is the wild card. They play in the very EVEN Big East. They dropped another one today at Lousiville. They are a better team than their record shows. They will probably drop because of the loss, but strength of schedule should be factored in.
Ohio State is probably the only team that might take the top spot over Kansas. While they are a good team and deserving of that top spot, their schedule, not near as tough. The only good win in non conference play is against Florida. The Big Ten is not as good as people think they are. There will be 3, possibly 4 teams out of this conerence get in with sub .500 conference records. I've watched Michigan State and Illinois play recently, and they look, just bad. When they played each other, it looked like both teams were trying to loose the game, not win. Michigan State is 16-12 overall. They are barely above .500. How can you put them in??? Colorado is 18-11 and have better wins than MSU and deserve that spot more.
Should BYU or San Diego State get a #1 seed? Absolutely not. I don't want to take anything away from either team, but I'm sorry, the competition in the Mountain West is nothing like the Big East, Big 10, or Big XII. BYU only played 2 good teams in non conference beating Arizona, and loosing to UCLA. SDSU doesn't even have that and got swept by BYU. I just don't think either team has the resume to be a #1 seed.
I still think 3 of the 4 are still #1 seeds. Kansas, Ohio State, and Pittsburgh I still feel are worth of a #1 seed. That forth spot is still up for grabs.
I think it's safe to say the landscape of college basketball is completely different now than it was at the beginning of the season. Some teams have self destructed and other teams have rose to the occasion. It should make for an interesting last week of basketball, leading up to the conference tournaments.
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