Sunday, February 20, 2011

Interesting predicament we have here...

It is going to be interesting to see what happens in the polls tomorrow.  In the past week we saw the top 4 teams in the polls all loose.  Then you have Duke who has played a VERY weak schedule in a conference that to say is in a down year is an understatement.  I think the Colonial, Atlantic 10, and the Missouri Valley are tougher than the ACC this year.  Who have they beat this year??  Kansas State?  Michigan State?  How are those teams doing now??  Yeah, that's right.  They are on the wrong side of the bubble right now.  Despite all of this the idiots that vote in the polls will make Duke the new #1 tomorrow.  I would still put a 5 loss Kansas team ahead of a 1 or 2 loss Duke team.  I would rank the top 4 like this: Kansas, Pittsburgh, Texas, and Ohio State.  As was the case last week after Ohio State lost, all 4 teams deserve that spot.  There is no real fair way to rank them at this point when they are all so equal.  3 of the 4 teams were beat by average teams in their conference, all on the road.  Ohio State has a good arguement in that their loss was AT #11 Purdue.  That was a loss I saw coming after the blowout in Columbus.  Purdue is a much better team than Kansas State, Nebraska, and St John's.  But it's still a loss.  They don't give you a half-loss because the team's better.  Purdue is undeafeted this season at Mackey Arena, Nebraska has only one loss, to Kansas, in the Devaney Center, the "Octagon of Doom" has become quite the home court advantage under Frank Martin, and St John's resume at MSG is pretty impressive as well.  How do you rank one better or worse than the other.  I don't think you can at this point in the season.  All four teams deserve to be #1, so how do I rank them in that order?  I decided to use the college football theory.  In the college football polls, it's all about what have you done for me lately.  If you loose early in the season, you can still play for a title.  But if you go undefeated until the second to last game and loose, you're season is over.  So, I ranked them in order of their loss.  Kansas lost Monday night, while Texas and Pittsburgh lost on Saturday, and Ohio State on Sunday.  I gave the tie-breaker to Pittsburgh because they beat Texas head to head.
I'm sure all the idiots that have a vote will put Duke #1, and hopefully Temple takes care of business and shows them just how stupid they are this week.  But if they are able to get past Temple, and the easy, cupcake schedule they have they will probably finish the season in that spot.  They don't play another good team until the last game of the year in Chapel Hill.  Then they will be rewarded with an UNDESERVED one seed and probably the easiest bracket in NCAA history.  But I guess it's inevitable anyway.  All four teams will probably loose at least one more time, possibly two with the conference tournament because they play in tougher conferences.  They say they will reward you for strength of schedule and such at selection time.  That is the biggest load of crap i've ever heard.  You are going to give Duke a #1 seed, and probably put teams like Maryland, Boston College and Virginia Tech in the tournament and leave out teams like Kansas State, Nebraska, Baylor, Michigan, and Minnesota who while probably don't deserve to be in, deserve it MUCH more than Maryland, BC, or VT.
On a more realistic note, while I am fighting for these 4 teams to be ranked in the top 4, I don't believe any of them will win the title.  I believe it's going to be a team like Purdue, Arizona, UCLA, Georgetown, or Villanova that's going to win it all.  Those are the best 4 teams in the country, but how many times has a #1 seed won it all??  Doesn't happen as often as you would think.  Only time will tell.

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