Saturday, February 12, 2011

Who will be #1?

Ohio State lost to Wisconsin today, starting the argument of who will be #1 on Monday.  I think it's a given that it will be Kansas.  Ohio State will probably drop to #4, with Kansas, Texas, and Pittsburgh moving up one spot respectively.  But, who deserves it more??  All 4 teams deserve to be #1.  Let's make the argument for each team.
I will start with Pittsburgh.  They are 32-2 overall and 11-1 in conference play.  Their biggest argument is that they have only 1 loss in the Big East conference.  Most analysts say that the Big East is the toughest and deepest conference in basketball.  I don't think anyone would argue that the Big East, Big 10, and Big XII Conferences are the top 3.  But I don't think there is a clear conference to declare the best.  There are 1 or 2 teams ahead of the pack and then 6 to 8 teams all bunched up together within  few games of each other.  The overall picture of all 3 conferences look the same.  In the Big East you have Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, then 9 teams bunched up.  In the Big 10 you have Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Purdue and 5 teams bunched up together.  Then in the Big XII you have Kansas and Texas, then 8 teams bunched up.  With each conference pretty equal, how do you decide who's tops?  The top 2 teams in each conference wil be in the top 10 on Monday, but the Big XII will be #1 and #2 in the country.  Pittsburgh has some pretty impressive wins, probably the toughest schedule of the 4 teams, and only 1 loss in the Big East.  While that is a compelling arguement and deserve to be #1, it's just not enough.
Kansas will be #1 on Monday, but of the 4 teams, I think they are the least deserving.  While they do deserve to be #1 just like the other 3, the other 3 deserve it more.  Kansas' main arguement is that they have only 1 loss.  They have a weak schedule and have 1 signature win against Missouri earlier this week.  Memphis is in the middle of Conference USA and probably not even going to make the NCAA tournament, so you can't call that a good win.  They are 1-1 against top 25 teams, and the one loss came on their home floor to Texas.  They aren't even #1 in their own conference.  Everyone said Nebraska didn't deserve to play Miami for the national championship in football because they didn't win the Big XII Conference.  When all is said and done, Kansas will probably win or share the Big XII, but until then they shouldn't be #1.
Ohio State suffered their first loss of the season AT Wisconsin.  They still have the same number of losses as Kansas, and fewer losses than Texas or Pittsburgh.  So why should they even drop.  I'm sure their's been a situation where it's happened, but I don't remember anyone loosing and retaining the #1 ranking the next week.  Their one loss was on the road, where Kansas lost on their home court.  It's like the argument in college football where loosing early is no big deal, but loosing late can cost you dearly.  It's not fair, but it's the way it works.  Same case here.  It's not right, but the loss will cause them to drop.
Texas has the most compelling arguement for #1.  First of all they beat Kansas head to head, AT Kansas.  Second, they are undefeated (in conference play) and the #1 team in the Big XII Conference.  Third they have played a MUCH tougher schedule than Kansas or Ohio State.  That schedule includes non-conference wins against Illinois, AT Michigan State, and AT North Carolina.  Their 3 losses are what's costing them, but 2 of those losses are a 2 point loss to Pittsburgh and a 1 point loss in overtime against UCONN.  Texas appears to be heading into their easiest part of the schedule where Kansas is heading into their toughest part.  But Texas has to be careful because their final two games are Kansas State at home and at Baylor.  Both teams are disappointing, playing poorly and as of this moment out of the NCAA tournament.  If by some miracle they get things together, they could be trying to play their way into the tournament.  Both could be trap games for Texas and could allow Kansas to steal their umpteenth in a row conference title.
Duke doesn't really deserve to be mentioned.  While they only have 2 losses, the ACC is VERY weak this year.  There are probably only 3 or 4 teams deserving tournament births.  Their 2 losses are to Florida State and St Johns who are average teams in the middle pack in their conferences.  Their only impressive win is over North Carolina at home.  I don't think they should even be in the #1 discussion.
If I had a vote, I would rank the top 5 in this order.  Texas, Kansas, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, and Duke.  Their is no argument Texas, Kansas, Ohio State, and Pittsburgh will be #1 seeds come March.  They all deserve to be ranked #1 on Monday, and each has a compelling arguement for and against.  They will probably all move up one spot making Kansas #1 and Ohio State will fall in behind Pittsburgh.  Whoever the polls put #1 will deserve that ranking.  Whether it's Texas or Kansas at #1, the Big XII will be hold the top 2 spots in the country.

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