Saturday, March 19, 2011

Heartbreak today

This has been an interesting day to say the least.  I haven't commented much on the NCAA tournament yet, and I apologize for that.  I'm going to make up for that tonight.  We started the week criticizing the selection committee for letting VCU (Virginia Commenwealth University) and UAB (University Alabama-Birmingham) into the field while leaving out teams like Virginia Tech and Colorado.  I personaly had no problem with this.  We are talking about the 67th and 68th team in the field, not the top 1 or 2.  Virginia Tech followed their defeat of Duke with losses to Boston College and Clemson.  Colorado, I feel, is the only team with a beef, beating KSU 3 times, and Texas, but those are really only their quality wins.  Ultimately the ball is in your court as the saying goes.  Tad Boyle mad a remarkable turnaround in his first season in Boulder and has the Buffs going places for sure.  But there are things they could have done differently or better and wouldn't have been on the bubble in the first place.  Lets face it, Colorado or Virginia Tech are not going to win it all, so what's the problem??  I blame this on the expansion from 65 to 68.  What everyone had a problem with was UAB and VCU getting in place of other schools.  If we stayed with the 65 team fomat these teams wouldn't be in either, and I think most would be happy with the field of teams.  But, we would still find something to complain about, I'm sure.  We live in a society where nothing is ever good enough.  VCU played a tougher non-conference schedule, and the Colonial is a very tough conference.  Of the "Mid-Major" conferences, hands down the toughest.  UAB won the Conference USA regular season title outright.  Memphis got the auto bid winning the conference tournament as the #4 seed.  Again, if this were a 65 team field like last year, minus UAB, VCU, and Clemson, there would be nothing to complain about.
I hesitated filling out a bracket, but I couldn't resist.  This year I've actually followed CBB quite a bit, so I was curious how well I could do with more knowledge than usual.  Midway through the second round, not much different.  I did, however, correctly pick a few upsets.  I did have Marquette over Xavier and Richmond over Vanderbilt.  For the first time in a VERY long time all 4 of my final four teams made it past the first round.
My Final 4 teams are North Carolina, Arizona, Purdue and Florida.  I don't see any of the #1 seeds making it to the Final 4.  The NCAA tournament is all about matchups.  All week we heard about how easy the southeast region was and Pittsburgh had the easiest road to Houston.  Yet, like Kansas of a year ago, are done on the first weekend.  Seth Davis predicted mostly upsets in the first round in this region.  The only upset until this afternoon was one they didn't even talk about, Gonzaga knocking off St Johns.  Butler beating Pittsburgh today will probably go down as one of the best games in NCAA tournament history.  But this was not a tank job from Pittsburgh like Kansas did last year against Northern Iowa.  Butler is a very good team, and lets not forget has many returning players from last years team that played in the championship game.  Many have said Florida is overseeded as a 2.  They won the SEC regular season title.  The four teams, Butler v Wisconsin, Florida v BYU, two games from this region are probably the most watchable games of the Sweet 16 round.  I have Florida advancing from this region,  but I am personally rooting for BYU.  For what they did, deserve that trophy more than any other school.  I would love to see a Butler v BYU regional final.
Moving to the other end of this bracket, the Southwest is probably the easiest.  Kansas complains every year that they get the toughest region.  Well, they can't complain this year.  Kansas, Notre Dame, and Purdue, and that's it.  I have Purdue advancing to the Final 4 out of this one.  Kansas and Bill Self are famous for tanking.  They struggled for most of the game yesterday against a 16 seed.  They face an Illinois team tomorrow that apparently found it's offense yesterday.  I felt Michigan State, Penn State, and Illinois were very similar teams that were backing their way into the tournament.  I was not at all surprised at Penn State and MSU loosing, but the way Illinois played yesterday surprised me big time.  I have watched them play many times this season, and that was the best I've seen them play.  If they play like that again, Kansas will be in for a good fight.  On a different note, if Illinois wins tomorrow they will have beaten their previous coaches in consecutive games.  Bill Self left for Kansas after replacing Lon Kruger who left of the the NBA and is now with UNLV.  With the exception of Purdue, I would love nothing more than to see the Big 10 fail, but I've always believed in supporting team before conference.  I feel the same way on the other end of the spectrum.  I hate it when someone roots for a team they dislike because "They're in the Big XII."  That is one of my biggest pet peeves.  Kansas and Oklahoma are 2 teams that I will never root for regardless of conference affiliations.  So, probably in a loosing cause, I will be rooting for Illinois tomorrow for two reasons.  Notre Dame relies too much on outside shooting, much like Duke, and the NCAA tournament is one and done.  One bad shooting night and it's all over.  Between that and Kansas' history for tanking, I think Purdue is the best team in this region.  My two favorite teams, Kansas State and Purdue, are VERY similar teams, most notably their defense.  I was hoping for a KSU v Purdue matchup in the Final 4 but that dream got crushed tonight.  KSU lost to Wisconsin tonight, but how cool would it be to have a rematch of last year's elite 8 game against Butler, then BYU, then Purdue.  Back to being realistic, with Ohio State playing George Mason, Michigan against Duke, and afformentioned Kansas v Illinois I think it's pretty safe to say that another #1 will go down tomorrow.  I don't have much faith in Duke for the same reason as Notre Dame, they live and die by the 3.  I feel pretty confident in Purdue and Florida, not so much with North Carolina and Arizona.  If the right UNC team shows up, no one stands a chance.  They looked good yesterday, but fought from behind in the ACC tournament games.  They have the potential to be the best, and if they live up to that, will make my prediction correct.  Arizona in my opinion is one of the most underrated teams this year.  They got stuck as a #5 seed in the toughest regional but with Derrick Williams I think they can get through it.
I have North Carolina beating Arizona, and Purdue beating Florida in the Final 4, and North Carolina winning a close one against Purdue in the championship game.  Not very likely to happen, but it's March Madness.  The only sure thing is that there is no sure thing and anything is possible.

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