Thursday, April 7, 2011

Looking Forward...

Well, the NCAA Tournament is over, and a very entertaining one it was.  There have been many viewpoints on the tournament and the championship game between Butler and UCONN.  Most of the viewpoints have been critical.  As soon as the game was over analysts were quick to call the game the worst championship game in tournament history.  I think that is a little unfair.  One of my role models in high school had a philosophy that most coaches live by.  "Offense wins games, defense wins championships."  There's no question it was a defensive game.  The analysts are just upset because there was no big storylines involved in this game.  No coaching controversies.  It was just another game for both teams.  The only BIG name in this game was Kemba Walker.  They didn't have several star players to go on and on about.  All the television people care about are the ratings.  As far as the game is concerned, it was a close game until the final 5 minutes.  It was a very defensive game, but that doesn't make it a bad one.  Some even went so far as to say that it tarnished the entire tournament.  You can't judge an entire tournament on one game.  On this I go again to the analysts being unhappy.  They are unhappy there were no #1 or #2 seeds in the final four.  Plus the fact that the precious Big East they all talked SO highly about going into the tournament failed to live up to their hype and expectations.  Writers and analysts don't want to admit they were wrong about something so they will go to any length to make themselves right, and when they can't do that, point the finger at someone else.  They didn't get what they wanted in a championship game so they try to cover that by saying it was a bad game and ruined the tournament.  What happened to trying to cover something and make it a positive feel good story.  What should be talked about is Jim Calhoun winning his 3rd title, and being undefeated in tournament play this season.  (including the Maui Invitational, Big East, and NCAA tournament.)  But what they wanted to talk about was his impending suspension and whether his legacy would be tarnished.  On the other side, you have Butler.  Butler has several good stories.  First they have a very young and talented coach.  Brad Stevens appears to have a very bright future.  He has taken Butler from a mid major, to the chamionship game in consecutive seasons.  The job he has done at Butler is more impressive than most give him credit for.  Butler is not Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, or Duke.  Some coaches have taken over programs and after a few years of success are called great.  When you go on a recruiting trip, it helps to have that prestigious school attached to your name.  "Hi, I'm Bill Self, coach of the Kansas Jayhawks.  Or Hi, I'm John Calipari, coach of the Kentucky Wildcats." sounds a LOT more impressive than, "Hi, I'm Greg Marshall, coach of the Wichita State Shockers, or Hi, I'm Brad Stevens, coach of the Butler Bulldogs."  Anyone could take over at Kansas or Kentucky and recruit simply because of the school's name.  Calipari did take Memphis from nothingness to the championship game, but Bill Self has been handed good programs in great hands.  I would be interested to see if Bill Self could take a program like Butler or VCU and bring them to the stage that Brad Stevens and Shaka Smart have done.  While at ORU (Oral Roberts University) a mid major very similar to Butler, his best accomplishment was the NIT in his third year.  What did Brad Stevens do in his third year at Butler? Just made it to the championship game.  There are SO many good stories about Butler, yet all they wanted to talk about is how Butler apparently tanked in the final game.  Some went as far as to say Stevens was responsible for Butler playing the way they did.  They all wanted to focus on the negativity instead of taking something good away from it all.
Then you have the sore losers.  The fans of teams that didn't make it and don't want to accept that their team got beat.  Kansas and Ohio State may have been the best teams, but didn't even make the Final 4.  These were very talented teams, but sometimes it's hard to beat a team on a mission.  Everyone wants that spot in the final game.  Some teams just want it more than others.  VCU is a perfect example of that.  They took the "Us against the world" thing and rode it to the final four, beating powerhouses Purdue and Kansas along the way.  If Kansas and VCU were to play 5 games, Kansas would probably win 4 of the 5 games.  But when it counts, all bets are off.  All season long I've talked about how good those teams were, but knew none of them would make the Final 4.  These good teams coasted through the regular season meeting little resistance.  When they did meet resistance they failed.  Again I'm only using Kansas as an example because I am most familiar with them.  What happened to Thomas Robinson was truely tragic.  He lost both grandparents and his mother within a matter of months.  Texas came calling that weekend and the Jayhawks were quick to use that as an excuse for the loss.  A few weeks later they received the #1 ranking, and only a few hours later Kansas State wiped the floor with them.  For Kansas it's just another game they should win.  It means a lot more to KSU than Kansas.  In the NCAA tournament these teams run into the same thing.  These games mean a lot more to VCU, Butler, and Morehead State than Kansas, Pittsburgh and Louisville.
Now that all the hype and drama of the tournament are over, as usual we are looking forward to next season.  My prediction for next season is a changing of the guard.  There are some major changes that will have more impact that most people realize.  Most of it revolves around the Big XII.  First of all two up-and-coming teams will be leaving the conference.  Colorado has a very impressive tournaround, and got snubbed by the selection committee, to make it to the NIT final 4.  Next season Tad Boyle and the improved Buffaloes will be taking their play to the newly formed Pac-12.  Nebraska's turnaround wasn't quite as impressive or noticed, but still deserve some attenion.  And they will be taking their game to the new Big 10.  More recent developments involve the Missouri head coaching position.  Missouri lost the bidding war for Mike Anderson to Arkansas.  They hired Frank Haith from the U of Miami.  Along with the mediocrity Haith will bring to Missouri, he will be loosing two of his star players to the draft, so Missouri will be pretty much irrelevent in the Big XII next year.  Then Kansas State could be collateral damage from this.  Frank Martin is originally from the Miami area.  His biggest and best characteristic is his loyalty.  But, it's hard to say no to home.  We in Kansas are familiar with that, loosing Roy Williams and Bob Huggins to their home.  I want to think that his loyalty and appreciation for KSU will win out, but there is hope with Frank Martin.  If there is someone that will choose loyalty and appreciation over home, it is Frank Martin.  But, if Frank Martin were to go home to Miami, that would put KSU in the same position as Missouri.  Then you have Oklahoma and Texas Tech, in the basement and going through a coaching change.  Both coaches, Billy Gilespie at Texas Tech and Lon Kruger at Oklahoma have definate potential and will get those programs turned around, but not instantly.  So, it's a possibility that 4 of the 10 schools will be dealing with coaching changes.  The way it's looking right now the Big XII will be no better than a mid major.  My rambling has a point, and I will get to it.  The problem with Duke this year was the weak ACC.  They played a weak non conference schedule and their conference play was sub par compared to the Big East, Big 10 and Big XII.  Kansas will be this next year.  They will not be as good as this year's team but will look better because of the weaker Big XII.  The Big East will probably be the same as this year.  Built up to be the best, but no better than average.  The Big 10 will not be as good either.  Ohio State will be in the consideration because of Sullinger returning.  Purdue is loosing 2 of their stars, but will have Robbie Hummel back.  The SEC and ACC are improving, while the Big XII and Big 10 are going in the wrong direction.  Then you have the Pac 10 becoming the Pac 12.  Arizona and UCLA suprised a lot of people this season, proving that they are back, while Washington put everyone on notice.  They will be gaining Colorado and Utah which should only help them.  The teams I will be interested in watching next season will be Kentucky and North Carolina.  They both have tremendous returning talent capable of finishing what they started this year.  Florida should be considered in the mix and Duke will be because of who they are, much like Kansas and Texas.  Preseason rankings put too much weight on past and tradition.  When the dust cleared at the end of the season, the Big East was humbled, and Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Kentucky proved that they were under rated all season long.  Everyone was too busy talking about the Big East and filling the rankings with those teams, that they overlooked these better teams.  How many Big East teams made the Elite 8??  Yet all 4 of the above mentioned teams were there.  Now before you rush to discredit me and say I don't know what I'm talking about, I want to point out a few things.  I said all season the top 4 teams would not make the Final 4.  None of them did.  Only one made the Elite 8.  I'm going to do a little more bragging and talk about my bracket.  3 of my final 4 teams were in the elite 8.  My bracket finished in the top 5% of the thousands submitted.  I gave these teams the credit they deserved and they didn't let me down.  I'm hoping they don't next year either.  I do hope I'm wrong about the Big XII though.  But there's no question, Kansas and Texas will carry them.  If any of you are close with Kansas State or Frank Martin, PLEASE beg him to stay.  This means a lot on many levels.  College basketball is better off with him at KSU.

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